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Seminar 2
Seminar 2
15. Cosmos, Universe, Galaxy, Solar System, Planet, …
At Second Seminar, Tommy starts with “If intelligent beings exist beyond Earth, the facts of evolution on Earth make it certain they will be far ahead of us Homo saps.”
Kimura asks. “Is not the universe said to be more than ten-billion years old?”
Olga interjects. “I got trouble enough with hundred years. What is this ten billion?”
Tommy says. “Let's locate place before discussing time. Start at Cosmos! I have to improvise from the usual dictionary definition, which seems merely to make Cosmos the opposite of Chaos.
Cosmos ought to be the highest level abstraction like Cole Porter's The Top; the ultimate step-up above Universe –, all and nothing at all, comprising the reality of existence and of its opposite, nonexistence. From the human standpoint, the Cosmos is the container of all that is thinkable, including the nothing! This definition dictates one Cosmos, and nothing that contains it as a part. Within Cosmos are universes, localized accumulations of matter, energy and space, having originated each in its own big bang - an explosion of a maximally concentrated dense unit of matter from an original atom. We humans have only observed one universe which we exist within, because, as micro-universic critters, our powers of observation are limited to a horizon determined by the speed of light.
Cosmos ought to be the highest level abstraction like Cole Porter's The Top; the ultimate step-up above Universe –, all and nothing at all, comprising the reality of existence and of its opposite, nonexistence. From the human standpoint, the Cosmos is the container of all that is thinkable, including the nothing! This definition dictates one Cosmos, and nothing that contains it as a part. Within Cosmos are universes, localized accumulations of matter, energy and space, having originated each in its own big bang - an explosion of a maximally concentrated dense unit of matter from an original atom. We humans have only observed one universe which we exist within, because, as micro-universic critters, our powers of observation are limited to a horizon determined by the speed of light.
“The capital U of Universe indicates the singular one we inhabit and can observe. With Universe we get into range of the presently observable and knowable. Within Universe, our eyes have grossly observed and we have telescopically delineated galaxies, the discrete whirling concentrations of matter in space with stars like our sun, 100 billions for all galaxies in Universe. Capital G indicates our Galaxy as opposed to others.
Tommy pauses and looks about the table at the slightly dazed Seminarans; then continues: “Galaxy contains 200-billion or so stars we also call suns. Sol, our sun, is two thirds out from galaxy center, towards its outer edge, and, if you could view Galaxy from above Earth's pole, it and our sun within it would be seen to revolve about our galactic center counterclockwise at circa 250-million of our Earth years per one full galactic revolution - the galactic year.
“Sol is part of the next lower level of abstraction – a Solar System is the basic unit of a galaxy and comprises a star, or star system, and its planet-satellites, if any. Sol's system is 9 planets plus planetary debris, all revolving around Sol counterclockwise if viewed above out in space looking down on Earth's north pole. And the third planet out, Earth, is where we live. And on it we are right here, now.”
Tommy signals Kimi. She stands and goes for another round of powerful caffeine coffee. Olga, sprawled sloppily on a chair she has moved about so she faces Tommy, says in upper class accent, “Well, I cahn't disagree with your lucid lecture, Mr Man. It is incontestably interesting.”
The Kimi returns with coffees and they take a 5-minute break.
16. Numbers
Tommy raps Seminar to order at signal from Kimi while coffee is being sipped. “I have been throwing numbers around tres trop, in an outré way – 100-billion galaxies in Universe, 200-billion stars in Galaxy. Here we come to Madame Olga’s complaint.”
“Hear!” she cries out, pleased to be taken seriously. Then, jokingly, pointing at herself, "Right here!"
Tommy adds a footnote: “Astronomy has no ‘exact’. Every measurement comes with plus and minus range based on limits of measurement. To save space and time, I delete ‘about’, ‘approx.,’ ‘circa’.”
“‘Millions’ and ‘billions’ are magnitudes, the first with six addended zeros and the other with nine, but now I introduce you to a better system of expressing number size, based on power exponents and not needing exact numbers.”
Kimi stands and hurries around to Tommy's left, where she holds up a one-by-one-meter (3-foot square) white cardboard, and hands him a black marking pencil.
“A hundred is ten times ten (10x10), or also said 'ten to the second power', and written 102; a thousand is ten times ten times ten (10x10x10), or ‘ten to the third,’ and written 103; a million is ‘10x10x10x10x10x10’, or ‘ten to the sixth’, and written 106; a billion is ten by itself nine times, ‘ten to the ninth’, and written as 109; a trillion is ‘ten to the twelfth’ and written 1012 and so on.
"When we get to big numbers, you will see the advantage of saving zero space. For example, the near number of miles a photon of light travels in one year, by conventional number system is written 6,000,000,000,000,000, which, if it had to be spoken, would be the incomprehensible ‘six deci-quintillion’ but in the scientific system it reduces to simpler six times ten to the fifteenth, or as I write now: 6x1015.”
"When we get to big numbers, you will see the advantage of saving zero space. For example, the near number of miles a photon of light travels in one year, by conventional number system is written 6,000,000,000,000,000, which, if it had to be spoken, would be the incomprehensible ‘six deci-quintillion’ but in the scientific system it reduces to simpler six times ten to the fifteenth, or as I write now: 6x1015.”
“Got it!” Olga cries out. “Look darlings, I'm become a genius!”
“To celebrate Madame Olga's attainment,” says Tommy, “let us take another break.”
17. Demolishing Clichés
Tommy takes up Seminar again. “Now, we need to relate distances on cosmic scale to the speed of light. According to Einstein, nothing can surpass it —- 5.87 trillion (He scribbles 5,87x1012) miles per earth year.”
“Miles?” interjects Kimura in evident distaste. “You Americans and the English are still mired in your outmoded system. Why not kilometers?”
“No reason, except my being American. You metric system buffs can simply multiply my miles by 1.6 to convert to kilometers. Meanwhile I proceed in miles.”
“You tell ‘em, big boy,” says Ali, mimicking a hard boiled Hollywood actress, she'd recently seen.
“Distance to nearest star - Proxima Centauri - is two and a half trillion (2½x1012) miles. How long might it take a hypothetical spaceship with ETs, extraterrestrials, from Proxima Centauri, to make a trip to Earth? The first limit is the speed of light which I shall round to six trillion (6x1012) miles per year. But a rocket ship with passengers is not realistic at that speed. The most optimistic guess is that a spaceship with living crew might do one tenth the speed of light. So, at one tenth the speed of light, or six hundred billion (6x1011) miles per year: from Proxima Centauri to Earth, consider a round trip of eight and a half years, with a stay of one and half years and, therefore, a useful round trip could not be less than 10 Earth years.
"But Proxima Centauri's chance of intelligent life is zero because it is part of a multiple star system that could not give the necessary climatic stability. So we must increase distances for such a trip by a factor of one hundred to include a realistic possibility of being visited by the ETs. This is one thousand (1,000) of our years, and a feat that strains belief based on the lifetimes of humans and the stability of human society. One thousand years is ten percent of the duration of the current civilization on Earth, and it is one percent of the span of existence of our own Homo sapiens. Tommy pauses for effect, then continues. “This exercise is to demolish the cliché that the ETs will or have come to us in spaceships. It is unlikely. But there are other ways that ETs could contact us."
"But Proxima Centauri's chance of intelligent life is zero because it is part of a multiple star system that could not give the necessary climatic stability. So we must increase distances for such a trip by a factor of one hundred to include a realistic possibility of being visited by the ETs. This is one thousand (1,000) of our years, and a feat that strains belief based on the lifetimes of humans and the stability of human society. One thousand years is ten percent of the duration of the current civilization on Earth, and it is one percent of the span of existence of our own Homo sapiens. Tommy pauses for effect, then continues. “This exercise is to demolish the cliché that the ETs will or have come to us in spaceships. It is unlikely. But there are other ways that ETs could contact us."
Boris who has been sitting silent in black, double-breasted suit, raises hand.
"Esteemed Tom, I beg to slightly differ. You refer to your "ETs" as if you talk about skin-and-flesh human type animals but have you considered automatons of metal and plastic that could be constructed to function with mechanism like our brains for thousands if years, and would be much less unstable than biologic animals - physically and mentally?"
Tommy reaches over the table and gives Boris an admiring pat on shoulder.
"Boris, I swear to the others I did not ask you ahead to raise that point. But I am happy you did. 'Robots' I think these automatons have been called in your language. At Harvard, I had a chance to attend a Seminar at MIT with Norbert Weiner about Cybernetics, the new science of non human control systems; systems that could be constructed to replace us unstable, short-lived humans. Yes, you are correct, Boris. And since it is certain that any ET civilization that could achieve interstellar rocket flight at even one tenth the speed of light must be thousands of years in advance of our civilization, we should consider the possibility of a cybernetic spaceship. It would not necessarily mean individual robots that look like people. It could be the total ship under the control of a cybernetic mind and with extensions that could act as people act but without their instability and tendency to error." Tommy pauses again to let his words sink in, then continues. "A cybernetic spaceship would remove the problem of the lifespan of intelligent animals and their civilizations but, still, there remains the huge improbability that we here on Earth would be the recipients of an ET interstellar mission. Recall, our Solar System is one of at least a hundred billion in our Galaxy. And we are located far out on the Galaxy's spiral arms. I am good at probabilities and I have calculated that the odds against an advanced civilization directing a flight mission toward our Earth are so huge as to make it near impossible even in the next billion years.
So what I say still goes. I debunk the idea of a "mission to Earth" of ET's. But, again, there are other means of interstellar communication." Tommy again pauses and his seminar partners lean forward as one to hear what he is up to now.
"Esteemed Tom, I beg to slightly differ. You refer to your "ETs" as if you talk about skin-and-flesh human type animals but have you considered automatons of metal and plastic that could be constructed to function with mechanism like our brains for thousands if years, and would be much less unstable than biologic animals - physically and mentally?"
Tommy reaches over the table and gives Boris an admiring pat on shoulder.
"Boris, I swear to the others I did not ask you ahead to raise that point. But I am happy you did. 'Robots' I think these automatons have been called in your language. At Harvard, I had a chance to attend a Seminar at MIT with Norbert Weiner about Cybernetics, the new science of non human control systems; systems that could be constructed to replace us unstable, short-lived humans. Yes, you are correct, Boris. And since it is certain that any ET civilization that could achieve interstellar rocket flight at even one tenth the speed of light must be thousands of years in advance of our civilization, we should consider the possibility of a cybernetic spaceship. It would not necessarily mean individual robots that look like people. It could be the total ship under the control of a cybernetic mind and with extensions that could act as people act but without their instability and tendency to error." Tommy pauses again to let his words sink in, then continues. "A cybernetic spaceship would remove the problem of the lifespan of intelligent animals and their civilizations but, still, there remains the huge improbability that we here on Earth would be the recipients of an ET interstellar mission. Recall, our Solar System is one of at least a hundred billion in our Galaxy. And we are located far out on the Galaxy's spiral arms. I am good at probabilities and I have calculated that the odds against an advanced civilization directing a flight mission toward our Earth are so huge as to make it near impossible even in the next billion years.
So what I say still goes. I debunk the idea of a "mission to Earth" of ET's. But, again, there are other means of interstellar communication." Tommy again pauses and his seminar partners lean forward as one to hear what he is up to now.
“The Universe is 14-billion (1.4 x 1010) years old; and our four and a half billion-year-old Earth has hosted us Homo saps for one hundred thousand (105) years; and Earth civilization from Ur to USA has gone ten thousand (104) years; and the possibility of we saps receiving the ET signals, much less interpreting them has only been around for the last forty years, since Mr. Marconi invented radio. Thus, our intelligent life here on Earth is an infinitesimal microdot in the cosmic time scale. If signals are being beamed toward us from outer space, they must be coming from ET civilizations far advanced compared to us. We Homo saps are like semi-intelligent ants just starting the search.”
Kimura raises hand. "But why, Tom san, should advanced ET's beam signals to Earth? Assuming an ET civilization is somewhere in our galaxy and, as you said, even the closest possible civilization would be thousands of years trip and knowing that there are maybe two-hundred billion stars each a potential sun in our galaxy, it strains believability to expect them to have any idea that this insignificant cosmic dot contains receiving stations and beings competent to understand such signals." He pauses for effect, then adds "And since you brought up the time effect on rocket-ship space travel at one tenth the speed of light, we should all keep in mind that any mode of communication - radio, light, cosmic ray - can never exceed that speed of light and since by your estimate the closest possible ET civilization is at least 1000 light-years from Earth, any radio or similar wave signal would take a thousand years to reach us and the sender would have to be prepared to wait at least another thousand years for a reply. It would take a very, very, very patient and extremely stable civilization to expect any result especially when they have very little idea where and what they are sending to."
Tommy jumps up. "Ken you put your finger on the crux of this whole Seminar. On theoretic grounds, I think, other intelligent life must exist somewhere out there. (He makes a gesture towards the ceiling). But of course we cannot expect them to beam anything to us. But the key word here is We. Keep in mind that They are not We. What if such an advanced society had figured out what you just said? What if they figured out to first call attention to themselves from the surrounding near or far stars by creating a gigantic display in our sky such as a super-nova that could be easily analyzed as being of artificial intelligence origin by the presence of certain types of radioactivity only associated with an intelligent civilization. And once a potential receiving civilization - We - realized the location of the transmitting civilization, it would not be necessary to beam their message to Us because we would turn our transmitter and zero in on Them."
Kimura raises hand. "But why, Tom san, should advanced ET's beam signals to Earth? Assuming an ET civilization is somewhere in our galaxy and, as you said, even the closest possible civilization would be thousands of years trip and knowing that there are maybe two-hundred billion stars each a potential sun in our galaxy, it strains believability to expect them to have any idea that this insignificant cosmic dot contains receiving stations and beings competent to understand such signals." He pauses for effect, then adds "And since you brought up the time effect on rocket-ship space travel at one tenth the speed of light, we should all keep in mind that any mode of communication - radio, light, cosmic ray - can never exceed that speed of light and since by your estimate the closest possible ET civilization is at least 1000 light-years from Earth, any radio or similar wave signal would take a thousand years to reach us and the sender would have to be prepared to wait at least another thousand years for a reply. It would take a very, very, very patient and extremely stable civilization to expect any result especially when they have very little idea where and what they are sending to."
Tommy jumps up. "Ken you put your finger on the crux of this whole Seminar. On theoretic grounds, I think, other intelligent life must exist somewhere out there. (He makes a gesture towards the ceiling). But of course we cannot expect them to beam anything to us. But the key word here is We. Keep in mind that They are not We. What if such an advanced society had figured out what you just said? What if they figured out to first call attention to themselves from the surrounding near or far stars by creating a gigantic display in our sky such as a super-nova that could be easily analyzed as being of artificial intelligence origin by the presence of certain types of radioactivity only associated with an intelligent civilization. And once a potential receiving civilization - We - realized the location of the transmitting civilization, it would not be necessary to beam their message to Us because we would turn our transmitter and zero in on Them."
Tommy glances at Kimi standing to his left and she hurries off to kitchen and he says. “The stage is set for the main argument. But now is time to take a break for a Kimi-cooked delish lunch.”
Olga, who has been scribbling notes, looks up from memo. “I dig it. Now, let's dig in to the exquisite eats.”
“Hear! Hear!” says Ali. “And bring it here!”
18. Why Should We Waste Time on This?
As they resume Seminar after lunch, Harumi asks “Why should we have this seminar? What if there is other intelligence?” Actually, she has been primed by Tommy to ask the question.
Tommy replies “Because a communication with ET's could hugely help today's corrupt culture crush us. Even if the ET contact contains a good message, like a cure for cancer, we New People should be the first to detect the signal. By We, I mean the science-educated people of the world, at the moment an unorganized minority but still united by a common use of the scientific method to determine fact and to answer questions of life. We cannot allow the corrupted politicians, who are presently losing control because of their ignorance and fear of science, to gain advanced ET knowledge that would make them invincible against our revolution to replace them with our Science Civilization. I open for questions.”
19. The Real Meaning
Kimi raises left hand. Tommy’s harangue surprises her. She is disturbed by his not valuing that advanced ET contact could help all humanity.
So she asks in her poor English: “Tommy, what bad about cure for cancer?”
“Good question. To save time, I used cancer-cure, as example of life-prolonging good-works expected of cliché science fiction ET's. Prolonging individual lives is the last thing Earth needs now. It will lead to more overpopulation, more oppressors and killers of animals and plants, more consumers of our fast dwindling precious resources, more producers of environment pollution with the horrific changes it is bound to cause for living environments, more destroyers of natural beauty! A new New People system for living is what is needed! Once we New People are in control, cancer will be cured quickly not for a cure's sake but because our priorities will be scientific and that will foster progress in pure science, the basic source of such a cure.
“I do not advocate a world according to Marx, Freud, or Einstein. No more world-beaters; no more Divas! If we get advanced ET wisdom, it should be used to establish Science Civilization – a world according to the scientific method led by persons committed to goals of Science, whose principles are 1) Pursuit of knowledge of the Cosmos on all fronts; 2) Preservation of Earth’s ecology, which must mean a planned society starting with a human population limit based on living space and respect for other animal and plant life and the inanimate like rocks and soil and water; and 3) Exploration of the solar system, whose highest initial priority will be to establish livable environments on our moon and after that on Mars.
“We should not tilt at the windmill of eradicating war. War now is the best hope for us. Let today's society murder itself while we get into condition and position to start Science Civilization.”
“Are you advocating unlawful, violent revolution?” asks Kimura, more in a spirit of getting Tommy to elucidate than with a sense of outrage.
“I am not against violence where I think it needed but the answer to your question is No. Now we are a tiny minority, and using violence would just call attention to us at a point we are too weak. This is a front for gathering-in our cabal under the search for advanced ET communication. The search is serious, its chances of success slight, but, if messages are out there, we want to be the first to find out and, hopefully, if we can control the discovery, the only ones to discover and decrypt. Meanwhile we use the search to gather ourselves together while the present idiotic system destroys itself. There will come a point, I estimate, in mid twenty-first Century, when the fools who now make the rules will have produced a cataclysm where murder, hunger, anarchy will sweep the world. By then, I hope, we will be powerful in major countries, in control of mechanisms of livelihood. Then with the power balance in our favor and using new weapons of Science, we will move decisively to secure control. No need to spell out details. By that time the good persons of the world – honest, simple folk that are figuratively ‘salt of Earth’ of any society – will welcome our system so long as it provides for basic living needs.”
“Time up,” interrupts clock-keeper Harumi.
Kimi has not understood Tommy well. But she decides to leave the question open. He has introduced her to a new set of possibilities. She is determined to study Science with the aim to educate herself so that she can form an informed opinion.
End of Seminar 2. To read on, now, click 3.20 Educating Kimi
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